On April 30, NYTimes published an editorial entitled “How long does the vaccine really last? This article is informative because the possible timing for an effective and widely used vaccine may vary depending on different variables. Given the history of vaccine development, testing, production, distribution and deployment, it may be reasonable to ask if we should plan for social distance, decompensation, testing and disguise on a scale of years, not months. Most of us, including myself, had anticipated that the vaccine would be launched this academic year in anticipation of a “return to normalcy” by the fall of 2021. But it is difficult to read this article without thinking that there is at least a chance that the vaccine will last longer than most of us expect. Our track record in developing a completely new vaccine is at least four years, longer than the public or business community can afford through socially distant orders. Can we imagine a scenario where international students no longer come to the United States? The combination of pandemic, political and geopolitical events will stop the global flow of students. If this is a new norm, what changes would we make to make the entire freshman academic career as productive, effective and transformative as possible from today? I do not know. The sad truth behind this optimistic forecast is that the vaccine is unlikely to be available anytime soon. While forest fires in the West are a sign, the consequences of anthropogenic climate change may manifest themselves sooner than expected. The idea of the black swan theory is that the future mainly consists of things we did not foresee. We have never launched a coronavirus vaccine for humans. Since it is unlikely that we can accurately predict the cause or time of the next strong blow to the system, it is best to focus on resistance and fighting fragility.